Levi Michael #1 pick in 2011 (30th Overall). The Twins got the best of both worlds with Michael as he fills a postion of need and is very talented. He hit .310/.440/.520 with 27 home runs and 40 stolen bases in three years at North Carolina. He was drafted as a shortstop but is athletic enough to play anywhere in the infield. I believe everybody knows the Twins track record for drafting at this position. The last successful starting shortstop drafted was Zoilo Versalles in 1959 when the team was still in Washington. Players like Roy Smalley, Greg Gagne, Christian Guzman, Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera, and J.J. Hardy were all acquired in trades.
Alex Wimmers #1 pick in 2010 (21st Overall). His 2011 debut was a nightmare as he walked the first six batters, had three wild pitches, and was unable to record a out in the first inning. He was a strike throwing machine in college but for whatever reason has lost his command. He showed signs of returning on Saturday by throwing four shutout innings to earn his first save for Fort Myers. I'm not sure he will return to elite prospect status but he is still only 22.
Kyle Gibson #1 pick in 2009 (22nd Overall). He did not look like the same pitcher this year with a steep 4.81 ERA in 95.1 IP at Rochester. He has yet to throw over 160 innings in the minors and struggled to stay healthy in college. The once promising season could turn to heartbreak if he needs Tommy John surgery. This means he would not pitch again until 2013 and it would be a huge setback.
Matt Bashore #1 pick in 2009 (46th Overall). He is the typical tall, soft throwing lefty with average stuff the team seems to love. He threw two innings for Elizabethton and was shut down because of elbow problems in 2009. He had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2010 season. He is back pitching for Elizabethton in 2011 and has a 4.26 ERA in 12.2 IP. He has a 89-93 MPH fastball but lacks a secondary pitch.
Aaron Hicks #1 pick in 2008 (14th Overall). He has failed to live up to the expectations that go along with being a five-tool player. He is a switch hitter but really struggles from the left side of the plate. He has shown very limited power and is hitting .242/.348/.373 at Fort Myers. He is a very streaky hitter but still has a tremendous amount of potential. Most bloggers have deemed him the next can't miss kid, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
Carlos Gutierrez #1 pick in 2008 (27th Overall). He was drafted as a starting pitcher but moved to the bullpen late last year. He is back with Rochester for his second season and still learning at 24. He has a high 3.81 ERA in 49.2 IP and a SO/9 ratio of 7.1. Gutierrez had Tommy John surgery in 2006 so that could be a problem in the future. He does manage to produce a lot of groundballs when he is effective.
Shooter Hunt #1 pick in 2008 (31st Overall). He has been a complete disaster with a career 7.02 ERA in 180.2 IP in the minors. His control has always been the overwhelming issue for his lack of success. He has a earth shattering 15.2 BB/9 rate in 2011. He will never make it to New Britain unless something drastic changes.
Ben Revere #1 pick in 2007 (28th Overall). This pick has a chance of being a real winner if Revere continues to develop. He is only 23 years old and is playing almost everyday in the outfield for the Twins. He has hit at every level in the minors and can steal bases at will. He needs to get on base more consistently to put pressure on other teams. He only had 547 plate appearances between New Britain and Rochester before being called up. Other scouts criticized the Twins for drafting Revere in the first round but they might end up eating those words.
Chris Parmelee #1 pick in 2006 (20th Overall). This pick could end up working out for the Twins. It looked pretty bad three years ago but Parmelee has really worked hard to cut down on his strikeouts and make better contact at the plate. He is only 23 and in his second year at New Britain. He is hitting .283/.368/.444 with 11 HRs and 69 RBIs in 489 plate appearances. Parmelee has been moved all around the diamond but looks most comfortable at first base. He has only 3 errors in 84 games and could be the replacement for Justin Morneau if he does not resign.
Matt Garza #1 pick in 2005 (25th Overall). Garza only pitched two seasons for the Twins before being dealt to Tampa Bay in 2007. It's safe to say the front office made a huge mistake trading him for the erratic Delmon Young. Garza has a career 3.94 ERA in six seasons and has thrown over 854 innings. He is the definition of a workhorse and we are left to wonder what might have been.
Henry Sanchez #1 pick in 2005 (39th Overall). He was once thought to be the future cleanup hitter for the Twins but never made it past Beloit in his five minor league seasons. He battled injuries and was suspended for violating the leagues drug policy in 2009.
Trevor Plouffe #1 pick in 2004 (20th Overall). He was all but handed the starting shortstop job earlier in the season but could not make the routine plays defensively to keep it. He was sent back to Rochester where his bat came alive. He was recalled in July and will be used as a utlity and bench player. He can hit for some power but most likely will never be an everyday player in the majors.
Glen Perkins #1 pick in 2004 (22nd Overall). He has been up and down throughout his short six-year career and was almost released this spring. He has worked as a starter and in the bullpen. He was put in the 8th inning setup role this year and has excelled. He has a 1.85 ERA in 43.2 IP with an impressive 9.9 SO/9 ratio. He looks like a brand new pitcher with his fastball touching 95-96 on the radar gun. This unexpected turn around is amazing and has been fun to watch.
Kyle Waldrop #1 pick in 2004 (25th Overall). It's very tough for me to say anything negative about Waldrop because he has never been given an opportunity with the Twins. He has a career 3.65 ERA in seven minor league seasons and is not on the Twins 40-man roster. Not sure why Waldrop has not been given a shot considering all the bullpen problems the team has had this year. He has nothing else to prove at Rochester and deserves to be called up.
Matt Fox #1 pick in 2004 (35th Overall). He spent six years in the minors before being called up to make his professional debut on September 3, 2010 against the Texas Rangers. He was sent back down to Rochester and claimed off waivers by Boston in September. He is currently pitching in the Red Sox farm system.
Jay Rainville #1 pick in 2004 (39th Overall). He was considered the next great power pitcher who drew comparisons to Roger Clemons. He struggled with injuries to his right shoulder and never really recovered from season ending surgery to repair a nerve problem in 2006. He went 37-31 with a 4.08 ERA in five minor league seasons. He retired on August 14, 2009 at the young age of 23. Add Rainville to the long list of pitching prospects that were total failures.
Matt Moses #1 pick in 2003 (21st Overall). He was thought to be the third baseman of the future when he was drafted. He struggled with injuries including a stress fracture to his lower back in 2004. He never developed the kind of power production expected from him. He played seven seasons in the minors with career statistics of .249/.304/.374 with 47 HRs and 310 RBIs. He retired at the age of 24.
Denard Span #1 pick in 2002 (20th Overall). He was drafted to take over for centerfielder Torii Hunter and made his debut in 2008. He has been fantastic in four years with a career .287/.364/.388 with 73 stolen bases and 285 runs scored. He has provided the team with solid defense up the middle but needs to stay healthy.
Joe Mauer #1 pick in 2001 (1st Overall). I remember being furious with the Twins for taking the hometown kid instead of ace pitcher Mark Prior. The scouts hit a home run with this pick as Prior only lasted five seasons and retired with injury problems in 2006. Mauer has a career line of .325/.404/.472 with three batting titles and one MVP in eight seasons. The only knock on Mauer has been his ability to stay healthy. If he moves out from behind the plate on a permanent basis in 2012 he should bounce back from a terrible season.
Adam Johnson #1 pick in 2000 (2nd Overall). Johnson pitched in nine games and played just two years with the Twins. He had a 1-3 record with a 10.25 ERA in 26.1 IP. He was released in 2005 and never pitched again in the big leagues. He might be the biggest bust in Twins history.
Aaron Heilman #1 pick in 2000 (31st Overall). The Twins were unable to sign Heilman and he entered the draft again in 2001. The New York Mets selected him with the 18th overall pick. He has been a very durable relief pitcher throughout his nine-year career with a 4.40 ERA in 630 innings.
There were 21 number one picks drafted from 2000-2011 and as of right now only (Garza, Perkins, Span, and Mauer) are sure things. I am encouraged by the recent play of (Revere, Hicks, Gutierrez, and Parmelee) but it's way too early to know how they will turn out. I refuse to add Gibson and Wimmers to the encouraged list because both have suffered huge setbacks. I guess you could put them in the unknown category for right now. This means unequivocally that 11 number one picks were busts. It also helps clarify why the minor league teams lack depth and are so bad. The Twins need to rectify this problem if they want to get back to their winning ways. Please feel free to leave me any comments because your opinion matters to me.
5 comments:
Smalley was aquired from Texas, with others(Bill Singer and Mike Cubbage?), for Blyleven in 1976 I believe. So the drought goes back to Zoilo Versalles!!
Needashave,
Thanks, I did not know that.
That was a really fun read... interesting stuff! There have certainly been some big-time busts over the last 10-12 years, and more going back further.
The thing I would note is that Denard Span didn't put up tremendous minor league numbers... but he was drafted in '02 and came up on '08... If Hicks goes by the same timeline, he should make it up in 2014. In other words, I do think it is not only fair, but wise, to stay patient. Not many guys like Mauer and Revere who make it to the big leagues as quickly as they do.
Wimmers has been terrific since his return, and there is plenty of reason to be quite hopeful. And if he overcomes that, it says a ton about him.
As for Gibson, I don't think it's fair to call him a bust due to injury. Unfortunately, that is a risk with any pitcher taken or signed. There was some risk when he was drafted, but we saw last year and through the first two months this year how good he can be. Now, we just hope!
Also, Bashore wasn't (when drafted) a soft-tosser... shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery have probably reduced it though, unfortunately.
Great article.
Interesting material, Jack, but would benefit from some context. By comparison, what has happened with, for example, the WhiteSox and Tigers 1st round picks? Maybe, since their approach is more statistical in nature, a comparison to the A's 1st round picks would be of value.
Living in a town with a Class A team (Angels), I've seen a lot of expensive draft choices come and go, with few ever living up to initial expectations. I'm left with a sense that the draft is a crapshoot. You may hit on more 1st rounders than 5th rounders, but it's still a very long road from draft day to MLB All-star and there's just too much that can go wrong along the way.
For the life of me, I cant believe Revere was a 1st round pick with a 2 arm and 2 power. He makes Coco Crisp's arm look like bo jackson's. Also, I've never seen any player tap back to the pitcher more than him. It's he who I dont see as an everyday player. Plouffe on the other hand could be a pretty good player if Gardy would let him play consistantly. You can't teach the ball to jump of a bat and his does. I could see him being every bit as good as cuddyer and dont forget how awful cuddyer was defensively when he came up as a short, a 2d base, I mean an outfielder.
The Twins sure have been pretty enemic in drafting players especially considering how safe they are doing so.
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